We are quickly wrapping up summer 2020. And wow…we won’t forget it! What is normally a time of recharging and checking out from the norm has been a time for many of checking in to the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The toll this can take on us is brutal. I don’t think we were designed as humans to digest constant news and data from around the globe. Of course, the bulk of this news is negative and life-taking, not giving.
But there is some good news that hasn’t been reported as much as COVID-19 – the stock market. Would you believe that on July 21st this year the S&P 500 index closed at the same value where it started the year (3,257)? Also, on July 22nd it even exceeded the starting value (3,276)? So what are investors to do? We have some suggestions.
Stock Market vs. The Economy
You might be asking: “How can the stock market be back up given the horrible news of COVID-19 and discouraging (to say the least) economic reports such as unemployment numbers?” Answer: The stock market and economy are not the same. Yes, there is some correlation between the two. However, as often said in our client email communications and previous blog posts, the stock market is a leading economic indicator. The stock market is forward-looking and prices in what it believes lies ahead.
No question the actions of Congress and the Fed has provided stability to the markets. Now, it comes at a cost to the government and eventually taxpayers. But in the short-term, the stock market is pricing in stability.
Reasons to Stay Invested
You might feel the temptation to bail-out now given you are back (or almost back) to your January 1st starting values. However, what is your motivation? Most likely it’s fear which is seldom a good reason to make adjustments. So why stay invested?
- Remember why you invested in the first place. Investing was never a short-term plan (at least not for Rivertree clients). It’s not a sprint; it’s a marathon. Don’t lose focus of this long-term goal.
- Recognize the Opportunity. For those still in the accumulation phase of retirement planning (i.e. still contributing regularly to retirement accounts), have you celebrated the investment purchases that occurred in February through May? You bought more shares of companies whose values were beaten-down. With this short-term recovery, you now own more shares than you would have previously! This valuable investment strategy is called dollar-cost averaging. And it works well with time.
- Recognize the Alternatives. Should you choose to abandon your long-term investment plan, what are your investment alternatives? Cash? If you’re like me, you have received multiple emails from savings account companies stating that your interest rate was being lowered. You’re doing really good to get 1% now for online FDIC insured savings accounts. Is a 1% rate of return going to accomplish your long-term goals? Most likely not unless you have significant wealth and can afford for inflation to erode the purchasing power of your dollars. Savings accounts are great for emergency funds and short-term savings needs. They are lousy for long-term investing.
Reasons to Adjust
No question there are times to make adjustments to your investment allocations. These adjustments could better suit your long-term goals and needs. When is a time to adjust?
- Your goals have changed. Perhaps your retirement age moved from 62 to 70 or vice versa. This eight-year difference could affect the amount of stock and fixed-income holdings you have. If your retirement is delayed until age 70, you could afford to have a larger allocation towards stocks. If your retirement age is expedited to age 62, consider allocating more to fixed-income investments.
- Your risk tolerance has changed. It’s common that a once aggressive investor shifts to a more moderate investment risk tolerance, especially as one approaches retirement age and considers that little will be added to investment accounts. And, you wonder if you’ll live long enough to see your investments recover in the event of a downturn. Maybe the year 2020 has exposed this change in risk tolerance and it’s time to make adjustments.
- Your financial circumstances have changed. Maybe you’ve had a change in income or lost a loved one. These life events would certainly be cause to revisit your investment allocations.
In summary, there are wise reasons to revisit your investment strategies and goals. There are also unwise reasons to make adjustments. Presidential elections come and go. The pandemic will eventually pass. Volatility in the stock market will rear its head during times of uncertainty. But don’t let these fears be the driver of your investment decisions. Research continues to show that investment decisions based on fear do not produce long-term results.
Our job is to walk alongside our clients during these times of uncertainty and help them make wise long-term decisions. Should you feel the need to have a conversation, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
*For financial planning clients of Rivertree Financial Planning: Please contact us as soon as possible if you have had any changes in circumstances, objectives, goals or risk tolerance.
Scott is the founder and a partner at Rivertree Financial Planning. Scott and his wife Helen currently reside in Jackson, MS with their three children Artur, Taylor, and Molly. They are members of Redeemer Church, PCA in Jackson.